Long-Term Carbon Neutrality Pathways Enhance the Stability of Global Wind Energy Resources

Abstract

Projection and evaluation of wind energy changes toward carbon neutrality are important for energy planning. However, the benefits of wind energy changes along carbon neutrality or low-carbon development pathways remain understood insufficiently. Based on models’ datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study explores wind energy changes during the pre-net-zero (2025–2035), net-zero (2050–2060) and net-negative (2090–2100) CO2 emission periods relative to a baseline period (1995–2014) over the global land under SSP1-1.9, which can be regarded as a reference for the carbon neutrality pathway. SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 are also selected for comparison. The results demonstrate that SSP1-1.9 is more favorable for maintaining the stability of wind energy resources, which will reduce the decline in wind energy over the Northern Hemisphere and constrain the increase over the Southern Hemisphere compared with higher-emission scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. These characteristics become increasingly pronounced as the divergence in cumulative CO2 emissions widens. The reduction in wind energy over the Northern Hemisphere is primarily governed by changes in the frequency of wind speeds below 3 m/s and between 3 and 11 m/s, while the increase in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by the increased frequency of 3–11 m/s. The divergent changes in wind speed frequency between the two hemispheres are closely associated with their distinct temperature gradient responses to different scenarios. This study highlights the benefit of carbon mitigation measures in maintaining wind energy stability compared with higher-emission pathways. As cumulative CO2 emissions continue to decrease, this benefit becomes increasingly pronounced. The research provides scientific evidence for evaluating the benefits of carbon neutrality policies and planning future wind power resources.