Changing Epidemiology of Scarlet Fever in Azerbaijan: A Longitudinal Study (2000–2024)

Abstract

Scarlatina (scarlet fever), caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, remains a significant public health concern due to its potential for outbreaks and complications. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence of scarlatina in Azerbaijan between 2000 and 2024 and to analyze trends in disease dynamics. This retrospective descriptive study utilized national epidemiological surveillance data from the State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Reported scarlatina cases and incidence rates per 100,000 population were analyzed over five-year intervals. Between 2000 and 2010, the incidence of scarlatina remained low, ranging from 0.5 to 2.1 per 100,000. A moderate increase occurred from 2011–2020, with annual rates fluctuating between 1.5 and 2.6. However, the most notable surge was observed from 2022 to 2024, with the incidence reaching 11.1 in 2024. This increase may be partially linked to post-pandemic healthcare changes and enhanced surveillance. The recent rise in scarlatina incidence in Azerbaijan calls for reinforced surveillance, public education, and targeted interventions. Further research is needed to explore the causes of this resurgence and to evaluate potential preventive measures.