Ջրծաղիկ հիվանդության համաճարակաբանական առանձնահատկությունները Հայաստանի Հանրապետությունում (1981–2025թթ.)

Abstract

Varicella is a highly contagious acute viral disease that remains an important public health concern, particularly in countries where vaccination has not been introduced. The aim of this study was to assess the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Armenia based on administrative statistical data for the period 1981–2025. A retrospective descriptive epidemiological study was conducted using linear and Poisson regression analysis. The results showed that the dynamics of incidence are characterized by wavelike fluctuations and periodic increases (1987, 2011, 2024). During the COVID-19 pandemic, a statistically significant decrease was observed, followed by an increase in the post-pandemic period. The highest incidence was recorded in the 0–18 years age group (IRR=4,6 (95% CI: 4,5–4,9), p<0,001), which accounts for approximately 90% of all cases. A higher risk of disease was also observed in urban populations (IRR=1,55 (95% CI: 1,5–1,7), p<0,001). The disease demonstrates a pronounced seasonality, with winter–spring peaks and a summer decline. Geographic analysis revealed higher incidence rates in Yerevan and highly populated regions.