Modeling Potential Global Habitat Distribution of Rubus sachalinensis Under Climate Change

Abstract

Rubus sachalinensis, a Mongolian medicinal plant, serves as a valuable raspberry breeding resource due to its high value and stress resistance. Global climate change and human logging have contributed to its gradual decline in population. In this study, we utilized MaxEnt modeling to forecast the potential distribution of suitable habitat for R. sachalinensis under changing climatic conditions, aiming to facilitate controlled cultivation to lessen dependence on wild populations and support conservation efforts. In this study, by integrating 573 global distribution records of R. sachalinensis with 22 environmental variables related to climate and terrain, we developed the MaxEnt model and selected 11 variables based on the correlation (correlation threshold r < 0.8) for analysis. Through the jackknife method, we found that the distribution of R. sachalinensis is primarily influenced by precipitation during the warmest quarter (bio18, 43%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11, 20.5%), temperature seasonality (bio4, 17.1%), and slope (12.2%). The habitat of R. sachalinensis reached its maximum extent during the Last Interglacial period, subsequently decreased, and then expanded to 4726.25 × 103 km2 during the Mid-Holocene period, and currently stands at 5293.45 × 103 km2 in northeastern China, eastern Mongolia, and southeastern Russia, with a smaller distribution in North America, particularly in western Canada. Future projections indicated a declining trend in SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5, with the centroid expected to shift eastward. Consequently, due to environmental changes, the suitable habitat distribution of R. sachalinensis will shift eastward, leading to a reduction in habitat area, and human logging will further exacerbate the reduction in wild resources. The resources within the area that remain constant from the ancient climate period to the future suitable habitat should be strengthened for protection, as well as the resources in the shrinking areas. These findings provide potential distribution information and dynamic changes in R. sachalinensis, which will provide vital data for identifying important conservation areas and sustainable harvesting.