Artificial Intelligence Development and Tourism Economic Resilience: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from China’s National New-Generation Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Pilot Zones

Abstract

Amid growing global economic uncertainty, strengthening tourism economic resilience is critical to the economic sustainability of tourism destinations. Using panel data for 288 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2024, this study uses the staggered designation of the National New-Generation Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Pilot Zones as a quasi-natural experiment and applies a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine whether artificial intelligence (AI) development promoted by the pilot-zone initiative enhances tourism economic resilience. Results show that the pilot-zone initiative significantly enhances city-level tourism economic resilience, and this finding remains robust across a series of endogeneity and robustness checks. Mechanism analysis identifies data factor utilization, technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrading as three parallel channels. Moderation analysis shows that the resilience-enhancing effect of the pilot-zone initiative is stronger in cities with more developed digital infrastructure, higher levels of marketization, and greater human resources. Heterogeneity analysis reveals overall regional heterogeneity and a stronger effect in resource-based cities. These findings clarify the mechanisms and boundary conditions linking AI development promoted by the pilot-zone initiative to tourism economic resilience and provide implications for technology-enabled sustainable tourism development.