TRANSFORMATIONAL PUBLIC GOVERNANCE FOR UKRAINE’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, SCENARIO-BASED FORECASTING AND STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES

Abstract

Ukraine’s recovery requires not only large-scale reconstruction financing but also governance arrangements capable of converting resources into resilient, inclusive and productivity-enhancing transformation. This article develops a conceptual frame work of transformational public governance for Ukraine by integrating four mutually reinforcing dimensions: multi-level decentrali sation and institutional modernisation, integrated digital transformation, public-private co-operation and investment mobilisation, and inclusive and accountable institutions. The study combines institutional and comparative analysis with an exploratory scenario based forecasting exercise using macroeconomic panel data for Ukraine and selected European countries. The quantitative component employs OLS and Random Forest models based primarily on investment and inflation variables. Governance-related variables con sidered in the initial specifications were excluded because of severe multicollinearity and model instability; accordingly, the forecast ing results are not interpreted as estimates of the causal effect of governance reforms on GDP growth. Backtesting instead reveals substantial forecast error for Ukraine under wartime conditions, demonstrating the limits of conventional models in the presence of structural breaks. The article’s principal contribution is therefore conceptual and policy-oriented: it separates governance-capacity indicators from economic recovery outcomes, links institutional transformation to a phased implementation architecture, and shows how scenario analysis can inform policy without overstating causal inference. The framework positions governance quality as an enabling condition for reconstruction effectiveness, investment absorption, institutional resilience and long-term convergence with the European Union.