Environmental Security of the Gulf During Armed Conflict: Marine Pollution Risks, GCC Preparedness, and a Regional Emergency-Response Framework

Abstract

The Gulf is a strategically crucial and environmentally vulnerable semi-enclosed marine system supporting petroleum industries, international shipping, desalination facilities, coastal ecosystems, and urban centers. Alongside chronic industrial and maritime pressures, armed conflict introduces severe risks via direct military operations, targeting of energy infrastructure, drone and missile strikes, hazardous material releases, and disruption of monitoring networks. This review evaluates the potential marine pollution consequences of armed conflict in the region, examining historical precedents, pollution pathways, and institutional governance across the member states of the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME), with specific attention to GCC national preparedness. It proposes treating conflict-driven pollution as a core regional security priority rather than an isolated environmental management concern. To mitigate these risks, the paper introduces the Gulf Environmental Conflict and Emergency Monitoring System (GECEMS), a five-layer response framework integrating real-time satellite surveillance, autonomous marine sensing, oil-spill modeling, standardized data exchange, and post-incident environmental forensics.