Energy Security, Waterway Wars, and International Relations in the Eastern Mediterranean: The Political and Economic Dimensions of Intersecting Interests of Coastal and Neighboring States

Abstract

The Eastern Mediterranean has rapidly emerged as a critical geopolitical and geoeconomic theater, defined by massive offshore natural hydrocarbon discoveries, complex maritime boundary disputes, and intense strategic competition among littoral and neighboring states. This study investigates the intricate nexus between energy security, maritime choke points, and international political economy, examining how natural gas reserves and strategic waterways function simultaneously as catalysts for cooperation and instruments of geopolitical conflict. Employing an integrated theoretical framework combining realist geopolitics and international political economy (IPE), the research analyzes the structural power dynamics, multilateral diplomatic alignments, and security dilemmas shaping the region. The methodology utilizes a mixed-method approach, integrating qualitative policy analysis with quantitative empirical data processing—including geospatial trade metrics, maritime transit volume indices, and econometric evaluations of energy dependency—to assess how regional disputes over exclusive economic zones (EEZs) impact global supply stability. Empirical findings demonstrate that overlapping maritime claims, exemplified by contentious delimitation agreements and the exclusion of key regional actors, significantly elevate sovereign risk and deter optimal foreign direct investment in energy infrastructure. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that militarization of maritime corridors and weaponization of energy supply routes exacerbate regional fragmentation, compelling littoral states to forge transactional counter-alliances. Conversely, cooperative multilateral frameworks, such as the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), offer institutional mechanisms for mitigation, though their efficacy remains constrained by unresolved sovereignty disputes and broader Middle Eastern rivalries. The paper concludes with strategic policy recommendations emphasizing the imperative of cooperative joint-development zones, binding international arbitration, and inclusive multilateral diplomacy to transform the Eastern Mediterranean from a zone of chronic friction into a stable energy corridor linking North Africa, the Middle East, and Europe.