Problems and prospects of formation and modeling of an integrated resilience management system for Ukrainian energy companies under conditions of war risks, hybrid threats and dynamic uncertainty

Abstract

The article investigates the problems and prospects of forming and modeling an integrated resilience management system for Ukrainian energy companies under conditions of wartime risks, hybrid threats, and dynamic uncertainty. The relevance of the study is determined by the unprecedented challenges faced by Ukraine’s energy sector as a result of the full-scale war, extensive destruction of critical infrastructure, increasing cyber threats, logistical disruptions, and the growing uncertainty of the external environment. Ensuring the resilience of energy companies has become a strategic priority for maintaining national energy security, economic stability, and the continuity of essential social functions. The research is based on a combination of general scientific and specialized methods, including analysis and synthesis, systems approach, comparative analysis, statistical generalization, modeling techniques, index-based assessment, and conceptual design. The study examines contemporary scientific approaches to energy system resilience, evaluates the impact of wartime and hybrid threats on the Ukrainian energy sector, and summarizes international practices aimed at strengthening energy resilience and adaptive capacity. As a result, an integrated resilience management framework for energy companies has been developed, combining risk management, crisis management, digital transformation, cybersecurity, and energy security mechanisms. The study proposes the WarTime Energy Resilience Index (IER), designed to assess the resilience level of energy companies through five key dimensions: physical and technical resilience, cyber and information security, operational adaptability, financial and investment resilience, and managerial and institutional preparedness. In addition, a resilience assessment scale and an integrated regulatory roadmap for public authorities have been developed to support decision-making according to different resilience levels. The practical significance of the research lies in the applicability of the proposed methodological tools for public authorities, regulators, energy companies, and international stakeholders. The developed approach can be used for resilience assessment, strategic planning, investment prioritization, risk mitigation, and crisis response management. Furthermore, the proposed index and regulatory framework contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of energy sector governance, improving resilience against wartime and hybrid threats, and supporting the post-war recovery and modernization of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in accordance with European resilience and security standards.