Studies on the Effect of Elevated Temperature and CO2 on Yield of Maize Crop under Raipur Condition

Abstract

Climate-driven changes in temperature and atmospheric CO2 may alter maize productivity, and their combined effects can differ among cultivars and sowing environments. This study used the CERES-Maize model within DSSAT to assess yield responses of NK-30, NK-7328 and NK-6110 under Raipur conditions. The model was calibrated with 2022–23 crop, weather, soil and management data and validated with 2023–24 data. Grain yield was simulated for three sowing environments (D1, D2 and D3) under the current condition, elevated CO2 concentrations of 450, 500 and 550 ppm, temperature increases of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5°C, and corresponding combined CO2-temperature scenarios. Root mean square error and percentage error were used to characterise differences between the present and scenario simulations. In the CO2-only simulations, grain yield increased across cultivar–environment combinations, with tabulated changes ranging from about 2.1% to 10.2%. In contrast, temperature-only simulations showed yield reductions ranging from 2.19% to 10.61%. Under combined elevated CO2 and temperature scenarios, yield remained below the present simulated values, with reductions ranging from 1.17% to 7.62%, indicating that the positive CO2 response only partly offset the simulated temperature penalty. Responses varied among cultivars and sowing environments. The findings demonstrate the value of locally calibrated crop simulation for examining cultivar-specific maize yield responses to incremental climatic changes under Raipur conditions.