The “Greenland knot”: geopolitical competition and security in the Arctic

Abstract

The article examines the transformation of Greenland’s geopolitical significance amid intensifying great power competition in the Arctic and the broader crisis of Arctic governance institutions after 2022. Greenland is viewed as a key element of the “Arctic–North Atlantic” nexus, where the strategic interests of the United States, Russia, China, the European Union, and several medium sized Arctic and non Arctic states intersect. Special attention is paid to the military and politico–military dimensions: the evolving role of the U.S. “Pituffik” space base, Greenland’s place in the U.S. and NATO ballistic missile defense and space surveillance architecture, and the impact of NATO enlargement on the regional balance of power in the High North. The article analyzes the changing status and foreign policy ambitions of Greenland’s autonomous government, its quest for greater agency vis à-vis Copenhagen and Washington, and its use of the island’s resource and geostrategic potential as a leverage in negotiations. The article explores the resource base of Greenland and the struggle for control of large deposits of rare-earth and other critical minerals, and the related competition among the U.S., China, and the European Union. It also examines the linkages between Greenland, the Northern Sea Route, and Russia’s Arctic strategy against the backdrop of record cargo volumes and the militarization of Russia’s Arctic zone. The conclusion outlines several scenarios of the evolution of the “Greenland knot” up to 2035 and provides policy recommendations for Russian foreign policy in the Arctic and North Atlantic.