The Arctic thaw: A new imperial dawn

Abstract

Abstract Since 2022, the Arctic region has entered a period of significant instability, which has placed considerable strain on the institutional frameworks established during the post-Cold War era. With the conclusion of that historical phase, the future of Arctic governance is being contested by Russia and the United States – two pivotal polar powers essential to defining the regional order. Following the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025, both nations have exhibited signs of diplomatic rapprochement, despite deploying distinct strategic postures. These postures situate the Arctic within competing metanarratives, wherein the region becomes the subject of new political imaginaries that instrumentalise imperialism. While the United States has resumed an assertive rhetoric towards its northern neighbours, Russia is attempting to resolve its long-standing civilisational identity debate by positioning the Arctic as a new centre of geopolitical gravity. Confronted with the threat of a division into spheres of influence, this paper contends that the Nordic states and Canada face the challenge of addressing the fragmenting polar governance regime that is essential in the context of the planet’s rapidly changing climate regime and growing geo-economic competition for natural resources.