Geopolitical disruptions and Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a global logistics stabilisation hub

Abstract

Background: Global supply chains remain highly exposed to geopolitical instability affecting critical maritime chokepoints across the Middle East, including the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. Disruptions in these corridors can reverberate through logistics networks, increase supply chain risk exposure and weaken trade continuity. Objectives: This study examines whether Saudi Arabia can function as a logistics stabilisation hub by connecting Red Sea gateways, Gulf ports, inland logistics corridors, energy logistics assets and digital logistics systems. Method: A structured survey of 300 logistics professionals was analysed using structural equation modelling. The model tested the relationships between geopolitical instability, maritime logistics disruptions, supply chain risk exposure, logistics stabilisation hub capability and supply chain stability. Results: Geopolitical instability increased maritime logistics disruptions, and maritime disruptions increased supply chain risk exposure. Supply chain risk exposure reduced global supply chain stability. Logistics stabilisation hub capability moderated the disruption–stability relationship and supported regional supply chain resilience. Conclusion: National logistics systems can reduce the destabilising effects of maritime chokepoint disruption when they provide multimodal redundancy, energy-logistics continuity and digital cargo visibility. Contribution: The study extends hub theory by framing logistics hubs as stabilisation infrastructure rather than only trade facilitation assets.