A Study on the Direction of National Leadership Based on the Global Economic Situation and Outlook

Abstract

This study integrates outlook reports published by the IMF, World Bank, and OECD from 2021 to 2026 to identify structural changes in the global economy and to compare the types and directions of national leadership in response to these changes. Growth, inflation, employment, and financial volatility indicators from the three institutions were synthesized together with geopolitical, trade-tariff, and AI-investment risks, and the policy responses of six economies—the United States, China, the EU, South Korea, Japan, and India—were then analyzed. The results show, first, that the 2026 global growth forecasts of all three institutions fall below the pre-pandemic long-term average, confirming that the recent slowdown reflects a structural decline in potential growth rather than a temporary business cycle. Second, the three structural risks were found to jointly affect growth, prices, and financial markets, thereby constraining policymakers' capacity to respond. Third, the leadership of the six countries was classified into distinct types along the axes of accumulation–transformation and defense–expansion, and these differences were interpreted as being shaped largely by each country's fiscal, technological, and demographic buffer capacity. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that the way national leadership interprets and assumes risk under a regime of low growth and high uncertainty constitutes a key mechanism generating differences in policy combinations.