ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY AND RISK MANAGEMENT OF RAILWAY TUNNEL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT: THE EXPERIENCE OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop and test a methodological approach to the integral assessment of the economic efficiency of railway tunnels and to substantiate, on its basis, recommendations for managing the risks of planned projects. The relevance of the study stems from the fact that tunnels are the most capital-intensive and risky elements of railway networks, cost overruns in such projects are systemic, while the traditional cost-benefit analysis fails to adequately capture non-monetised effects. The problem is especially relevant for the Czech Republic, which is implementing a large-scale high-speed rail programme, and for Ukraine in the context of post-war reconstruction and the European integration of its railway network. The methodological basis of the study is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with seven criteria (specific construction cost, construction pace, budget compliance, travel time savings, transport significance, technological innovation, construction safety), min-max normalisation and weighted linear aggregation. The weighting coefficients of the criteria are substantiated through the analysis of scientific literature and international appraisal guidelines, and the choice of min-max normalisation and linear aggregation is justified by the transparency of calculations and their suitability for a small sample of objects. The approach is tested on five completed railway tunnels of the Czech Republic: Ejpovice, Březno, Vepřek, Krasíkov I–II and the New Connection complex. It is established that the highest integral efficiency belongs to the New Connection complex (E = 0.820) due to the combination of the lowest specific cost, maximum construction safety and the highest transport significance; the lowest efficiency is demonstrated by the Vepřek (E = 0.347) and Březno (E = 0.301) tunnels, which is explained by the learning-curve effect and the 2003 collapse respectively. On this basis, the key risks of five planned tunnel projects are identified, in particular karst zones, cross-border coordination, dense urban environment and high budget concentration, and mitigation measures are formulated, including contingency reserves of 25–30% of the base cost, advance geological exploration and the combined TBM+NATM technology. The scientific novelty lies in combining the retrospective multi-criteria assessment of completed tunnels with the risk identification of planned projects within a single methodological framework. The practical value lies in the applicability of the approach to the justification of railway infrastructure investments.Keywords: multi-criteria decision analysis, integral efficiency, investment projects, high-speed rail, public investment.