Driving Global Food Security: Determinants of Agricultural Productivity in Leading Producing Countries Worldwide

Abstract

Agricultural production is one of the most widespread economic activities in the world, yet understanding what actually drives productivity remains essential for addressing food security challenges. This study examines the determinants of cereal and soybean yields in the world’s top-producing countries using panel-data fixed-effects regression to control for unobserved heterogeneity across countries. The analysis includes 520 observations for the top 20 cereal-producing countries (1994-2021) and 427 observations for the top 7 soybean-producing countries (1961-2021), subject to data availability. The results indicate that fertilizer use, GDP per capita, irrigation, pesticide application, precipitation, and temperature significantly influence cereal yield. For soybean yield, significant determinants involve fertilizer use, GDP per capita, temperature, and precipitation. The policy implications suggest that governments and stakeholders should prioritize targeted fertilizer subsidies, expand irrigation infrastructure, and invest in farmer education programs to optimize yield outcomes while ensuring sustainable agricultural practices.