Global redistribution of major disease vectors under high-emissions climate scenario SSP-8.5: implications for emerging public health risks.

Abstract

Climate change under the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5 is expected to substantially reshape the global distribution of disease vectors, creating emerging environmental and public health risks. While previous studies have largely focused on individual vectors, integrated multi-species assessments remain limited. In this study, we modelled the future distributions of more than 20 globally important vector species across four periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100) using logistic regression and 19 bioclimatic variables. The selected taxa span multiple biomes and include vectors of major zoonotic pathogens. The results indicate pronounced climate-driven redistribution, characterized by poleward expansion of tropical and subtropical vectors into temperate regions such as Europe, North America, and East Asia, alongside declining suitability in parts of the equatorial zone due to increasing thermal stress. Persistent hotspots are projected in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, while temperate regions face increasing exposure to vector-borne diseases. These findings highlight climate change as a key driver of ecological reorganization and transboundary health risks, emphasizing the need for climate-sensitive surveillance and adaptive public health strategies.