Spatiotemporal Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystems to Climate Forcing and Mitigation Strategies for Cold Regions Engineering

Abstract

Vegetation dynamics are key indicators of climate change and ecological risk in cold regions. This study investigated vegetation–climate interactions in Heilongjiang Province, China, using an integrated analytical framework that combined the Mann–Kendall test, Pettitt test, Hurst exponent, Continuous Wavelet Transform, and Wavelet Transform Coherence with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and meteorological data from 1990 to 2024. The dominant vegetation comprises cold–temperate coniferous forests, mixed broadleaf–conifer forests, meadow steppes, and croplands. Results showed that (1) the climate system experienced asynchronous abrupt changes, with potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, and temperature changing in 2008, 2011, and 2013, respectively. Accordingly, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index reversed in 2011, with greening rates in the range of 0.009–0.022 yr−1 in the northwestern and central regions and browning rates in the range of −0.010 to −0.025 yr−1 in the southwestern and eastern regions. (2) The Hurst exponent ranged from 0.23 to 0.48 for temperature and potential evapotranspiration, indicating strong anti-persistence and high future ecological vulnerability. (3) Wavelet coherence analysis identified precipitation as the dominant climatic driver at 6–9-year scales, whereas temperature shifted from a short-term positive driver to a long-term stressor, and potential evapotranspiration mainly regulated vegetation at 5–8-year scales. These findings provide scientific support for ecological risk assessment and climate-resilient cold regions engineering.