Decoding the Sprawl Paradigm: How New Building Typologies Shape Energy Consumption and Environmental Degradation in Erbil, Iraq

Abstract

The city of Erbil, Iraq, has expanded physically far faster than its population since 2003. This sprawl has accompanied an abrupt shift from traditional horizontal typologies — courtyard houses (mal-i hewshidar) and low-rise villas -toward high-rise apartments. A Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis of multi-temporal Land-Use/Land-Cover classifications (2004, 2014, 2024) quantifies the magnitude and rate of urban expansion through Shannon’s entropy: the urban footprint grew from 31.2 km² (23.4%) in 2004 to 88.7 km² (67.3%) in 2024, a 184.6% increase, while landscape entropy declined from 0.855 to 0.766. A household-level Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) analysis of apartment residents formerly living in horizontal dwellings tests a five-construct model: Urban Sprawl Intensity (USI), High-Rise Adoption (HRA), Lifestyle Shift (LS), Energy Consumption (EC), and Environmental Degradation Awareness (EDA). Grounded in social-practice theory, the model indicates that perceived sprawl is strongly associated with high-rise adoption, which predicts lifestyle change, the strongest predictor of household energy use, while higher energy use is associated with greater environmental-degradation awareness. Framed within urban economics, the findings link macro-scale spatial growth to the household energy burden and the broader economic cost of sprawl, informing planning that reconciles metropolitan expansion with the realities of vertical living.