Systemic Economic Instability as a Driver of the Transformation of Multimodal Transport Logistics Systems

Abstract

The aim of the article is to theoretically substantiate systemic economic instability as a driver of the transformation of multimodal transportation logistics systems, to identify its economic manifestations and consequences on the parameters of these systems’ functioning, and to outline directions for their adaptation as a prerequisite for ensuring sustainable development. The article explores both theoretical and practical aspects of the operation of multimodal transportation logistics systems under economic instability, shaped by global crises, geopolitical challenges, wars, and structural changes in international transport and logistics chains. Special attention is given to analyzing the impact of economic instability on the infrastructure, flows, information, financial, and managerial components of logistics systems, as well as to substantiating the need to move towards adaptive models of their operation. It has been found that the impact of systemic economic instability on logistics systems manifests not only in the disruption of synchronization of material, informational, and financial flows, but also in increased logistics costs, resource constraints, economic losses, and risks of decreased efficiency of multimodal transportation. The article examines the specifics of the transformation of multimodal transportation under uncertainty, explores processes of diversifying transport routes, digitalizing logistics processes, developing alternative transport corridors, and implementing risk-oriented management. The article also analyzes the impact of the ongong full-scale war in Ukraine on the functioning of the transport and logistics system, changes in the structure of transport flows, the reorientation of export logistics, and the growing role of the Danube transport direction, western border crossings, and alternative sea corridors. The main directions for the structural restructuring of multimodal transportation in conditions of wartime and economic instability have been identified. Based on the research conducted, conceptual models for the transformation and adaptive development of multimodal logistics systems have been proposed, reflecting the connection between economic instability factors, transformation processes, and mechanisms to ensure the resilience of transport and logistics systems. It has been substantiated that the efficient functioning of multimodal transportation in modern conditions requires comprehensive modernization of transport infrastructure, development of digital technologies, route diversification, integration of information flows, improvement of risk management mechanisms, and strengthening of international coordination. It has been determined that the transformation of logistics systems under conditions of systemic economic instability should be seen as a long-term structural response aimed at building adaptability and resilience in the system, maintaining its economic stability, and creating the conditions for sustainable development. The results provide a theoretical foundation for further development of methodological tools to assess economic sustainability and economic mechanisms to ensure the sustainable development of multimodal transport logistics systems. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the proposed conceptual approaches and recommendations to shape national transport policy, improve the management of multimodal transport, enhance the resilience of logistics systems, and ensure the continuity of transport processes amid economic and security instability. The results obtained can be used by government authorities, transport and logistics companies, and the scientific community to develop strategies for the adaptive development of multimodal transport systems, improve their competitiveness, and integrate Ukraine into international transport and logistics networks.