Impact of Low-Carbon City Policies on Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of Central China

Abstract

Against the backdrop of China’s “dual-carbon” goals, the low-carbon city pilot (LCCP) program has become an important policy instrument for promoting urban green and low-carbon transformation. Using panel data from cities in Central China over the period 2011–2023, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the impact of the LCCP program on urban carbon emissions and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that the LCCP program significantly reduces urban carbon emissions, and this finding remains robust to a series of robustness checks. Mechanism analysis indicates that the LCCP program significantly increases technological innovation, although the corresponding indirect effect on carbon emissions is not statistically significant. By contrast, energy intensity and fiscal autonomy exhibit significant competitive mediation effects, suggesting that the policy’s direct emission reduction effect interacts with indirect transmission channels associated with energy efficiency and local fiscal resource allocation. Furthermore, the emission reduction effect of the LCCP program is more pronounced in non-resource-based cities and small- and medium-sized cities, while no statistically significant effect is observed in resource-based or large cities. Spatial econometric analysis reveals significant spatial dependence in urban carbon emissions. Although the LCCP policy generates a significant local emission reduction effect, no robust evidence of cross-city policy spillovers is identified. These findings provide empirical evidence for understanding the effectiveness and transmission mechanisms of low-carbon policies and offer useful insights for advancing differentiated and coordinated low-carbon development in Central China.