Spatially explicit modeling of future land use and land cover dynamics in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

Abstract

Future land use and land cover (LULC) changes in major Brazilian river basins may pose substantial challenges for water resource management by altering streamflow regimes, reducing water availability, affecting ecosystem services, and increasing pressure on vulnerable hydrological systems. This study projected LULC scenarios for 2050 in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil, to identify potential spatial changes in LULC. Geospatial modeling was integrated with socioeconomic and environmental drivers of change. The Land Use and Cover Change Modelling Environment (LuccME) was applied to develop regional scenarios for 2050 considering the classes Agriculture, Forest, Pasture, Grassland, and Other Uses, defined from MapBiomas land use and cover data. Model performance was satisfactory, indicating strong agreement between observed and simulated patterns. In 2019, the average spatial adjustment index reached 89.48%, while omission and commission errors remained low, at 2.59% and 2.16%, respectively. The projected scenarios showed a consistent expansion of Agriculture, Pasture, and Grassland throughout the basin, whereas Forest declined across all scenarios, with the strongest reductions under the intermediate and strong-inequality pathways. Other Uses showed only limited variation. Overall, the results suggest substantial future LULC changes in the São Francisco River Basin, with important implications for environmental sustainability and long-term water resource planning.