Scenario-Based Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in the Municipal Solid Waste: Cambodia Case Study and Regional Comparison in Asia

Abstract

This study estimates future waste generation and evaluates greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential under alternative waste management strategies in Cambodia. Key mitigation measures include waste reduction, improved collection efficiency, recycling, and methane recovery. Recycling is identified as the most effective option, contributing approximately 60% and 77% of total GHG reductions in 2030 and 2050, respectively, while methane recovery provides an additional 28% in 2030 and 22% in 2050. Under the Business-as-Usual (BaU) scenario, waste-sector GHG emissions are projected to increase from 1.6 MtCO₂eq in 2010 to 5.7 MtCO₂eq in 2030 and 15.2 MtCO₂eq in 2050. A regional comparison indicates that Cambodia’s waste-related GHG emissions are high relative to its income level and are comparable to those of more developed countries such as Japan, while exceeding those of Singapore, primarily due to limited waste treatment capacity and a high organic fraction in waste. Implementation of countermeasure strategies could reduce emissions by 13% in 2030 and 39% in 2050 compared to the BaU scenario, demonstrating substantial mitigation potential in Cambodia’s waste sector. The study employs the Extended Snapshot (ExSS)/Waste model (a bottom-up engineering approach) and provides evidence-based insights to support climate-oriented waste management policy in Cambodia and comparable developing countries in the region.