Global and Regional Challenges and Internal Risks Facing the Ukrainian Electric Power Sector

Abstract

The article identifies and systematizes global and regional challenges and internal risks facing the Ukrainian electric power sector under the conditions of the full-scale war, accelerated integration with the European energy space and global technological transformation. The relevance of the research is due to the fact that russia’s full-scale military aggression has led to the deliberate destruction of electricity generation, transmission, and distribution facilities, worsened the shortage of maneuverable capacities, increased dependence on imported equipment and electricity, and also revealed the structural vulnerability of the centralized energy system architecture. The aim of the article is to scientifically substantiate the system of global, regional, and internal risks in Ukraine’s electric power sector and to determine the role of distributed energy systems as a tool to enhance its resilience. The methodological basis of the study includes systemic, structural-logical, comparative, and statistical analysis, SWOT analysis, cause-and-effect modeling, as well as a summary of data from international organizations, Ukraine and EU regulations, IRENA statistical profiles, and analytical materials from the IEA, World Bank, EIA, Energy Community Secretariat, and UNDP. It is substantiated that the main global challenges are climate change, decarbonization, digitalization, the development of distributed energy resources, storage systems, smart grids, virtual power plants, and active consumers. Regional threats are related to systematic attacks on electricity infrastructure, the integration into the EU electricity market, dependence on external aid and the need to combine short-term crisis response with long-term modernization. Internal risks include excessive centralization of generation, aging networks, shortage of flexible capacity, insufficient development of storage grids, poor digitalization and institutional fragmentation. The scientific novelty lies in systematizing the multi-level structure of risks in Ukraine’s electric power sector and substantiating the cause-and-effect relationship between the identified vulnerabilities and the need to develop resilient distributed energy systems for local communities. The practical value of the results is in the possibility of using them when forming energy recovery strategies, community energy resilience plans, and distributed generation development programs.