Cracking the predictive stability code: dual trial-by-trial spatio-temporo-spectral dynamics of task representation directional tuning by Bayesian conflict expectations

Abstract

Cognitive stability, or task focus, enables goal-directed behavior through representational dynamics: by prioritizing task-relevant representations over competing task-irrelevant ones. Beyond corrective reactive mechanisms operating after conflict arises, stability can be deployed predictively through the statistical learning of conflict regularities—either proactively, guided by global conflict expectations, or through a predictive reactive mode guided by item-specific ones. Yet, the representational mechanisms enabling such predictive adjustments remain underspecified. We addressed this by re-analyzing EEG data from a spatial Stroop task concurrently manipulating list-wide (LWPC) and item-specific (ISPC) proportion congruency. Moving beyond existing analytical approaches, we developed a framework combining trial-by-trial Bayesian conflict-expectancy modeling with a novel spatio-temporo-spectral searchlight Representational Similarity Analysis, and leveraged directional representational modeling complemented by ridge-regression decoding. We first identified the necessary computational substrate for stability predictive reconfigurations: the spatio-temporo-spectral patterns encoding task (Target, Distractor) and conflict-expectancy (LWPC, ISPC) representations, the latter representations encoded already in the pre-stimulus windows. Crucially, conflict expectations modulated Target and Distractor encoding strength with distinct spatio-temporal and spectral dynamics, revealing a functional dissociation. LWPC-induced proactive stability follows a “Target-first” policy, primarily strengthening the Target early post-stimulus via Alpha and lower-Beta patterns, weakening Distractor encoding only later on; conversely, ISPC-induced predictive reactive stability follows a “Distractor-first” policy, rapidly weakening Distractor encoding via response-locked posterior Beta patterns, strengthening the Target only downstream. Our study refines theoretical cognitive control models—incorporating a mechanistic explanation for predictive stability—while also establishing a multidimensional methodological template for interrogating the underlying substrates of adaptive behavior and beyond.