Assessment of the Possibilities of Increasing Russian Non-Resource Non-Energy Exports to the BRICS+ Markets

Abstract

The article presents the results of the assessment of the dynamics of Russia’s non-resource non-energy exports to the BRICS+ countries for the period from 2015 to 2024, based on mirror statistics from partner countries. It has been established that most of these countries represent unstable markets with volatile demand dynamics. Countries with significant potential for increasing Russian non-resource non-energy exports are identified. The study identifies the characteristics of the trade structure and the sustainability of export flows, and highlights priority areas for trade cooperation. A correlation analysis is used to demonstrate the relationship between the import of Russian non-resource non-energy exports by each BRICS+ country and variables such as the oil price, GDP of these countries, and trade complementarity with Russia. However, the strength of these relationships and their nature vary across countries. It has been established that significant factors in the demand for Russian non-resource non-energy exports are the dynamics of the importing country’s GDP and the situation on the global oil market. Based on the results of the study of the dynamics of non-resource non-energy import volumes from Russia to the BRICS+ countries, a number of recommendations for increasing supplies to these markets are proposed.