International Energy Cooperation with Russia: Prospects in Southeast Asia in the Context of Energy Transition

Abstract

This article examines the potential for cooperation between Russia and Southeast Asia within the framework of the global energy transition. The specifics of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Southeast Asia are analyzed. It is revealed that the scale of trade and investment interactions is currently limited. One of the key areas is energy, primarily the export of Russian energy resources (petroleum products, oil, and coal). Despite a significant decline in exports since 2022, Russia has maintained stable commodity niches in Southeast Asian markets, remaining among the main suppliers of certain commodities. It is shown that, given the accelerated growth of electricity consumption in Southeast Asia and the energy transition, accelerated growth in the natural gas market, an increase in the share of LNG imports, and large-scale development of nuclear energy are projected in the long term. A distinctive feature of Southeast Asian countries is the need for international cooperation to implement nuclear energy development programs, due to the lack of domestic technologies and expertise, and the need to attract large-scale investment. Competitive advantages and risks for Russia in expanding its presence in the LNG market and integrating into Southeast Asian nuclear energy programs are identified. The potential for increasing LNG supplies is driven by the availability of available capacity due to Russia’s exit from the European market and the expansion of LNG production in Russia; more flexible contractual terms offered by Russia to its partners; and the need for supplier diversification among Southeast Asian countries. One of the key risks is the projected global overproduction of LNG and increased competition for markets. Russia’s competitive advantages for inclusion in Southeast Asian nuclear energy programs include its leadership in the most in-demand small modular reactor technology, ongoing training programs for nuclear energy specialists, and a contract to build a nuclear power plant in Vietnam. The key risks are general in nature and are determined by international restrictions associated with the use of these technologies