Study on the spatial spillover effect of economic growth-carbon emissions in the construction industry of the Yangtze River economic belt

Abstract

The contradiction between coordinating economic growth and reducing carbon emissions is of great significance to China’s low-carbon development. The construction industry is an important pillar of many countries. However, its carbon emissions are huge and growing rapidly, which brings challenges to the realization of the global ‘double carbon’ goal. This paper selects the provincial panel data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt to explore the spatial spillover effect of economic growth and carbon emissions in the construction industry. Firstly, this paper uses the carbon emission coefficient method to establish a carbon emission measurement model for the construction industry. Secondly, it uses spatial autocorrelation analysis to test the spatial correlation between economic growth and carbon emissions in the construction industry. Finally, a hidden Markov ( HMM ) model is constructed to explore the spatial spillover effect of economic growth and carbon emissions in the construction industry. The results show that there is a significant spatial positive correlation between the economic growth of the construction industry and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt; there is a high correlation between the state of carbon emission reduction and the state of economic growth, and the spatial spillover effect of the two is more significant. The research results will help the construction industry to achieve the ‘double carbon’ goal and promote the sustainable development of the construction industry.