Viticultura no nordeste brasileiro: análise da produção de uva no período de 2004-2023 no município de Natuba/PB

Abstract

This study analyzed the productive dynamics of grape cultivation in the municipality of Natuba–PB, from 2004 to 2023, based on data from the Municipal Agricultural Survey (IBGE). The variables planted area, harvested area, quantity produced, average yield, and value of production were evaluated, in addition to the application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Three distinct phases were observed: initial expansion (2004–2006), stability (2007–2013), peak production in 2014, and subsequent contraction with stabilization (2015–2023). The year 2014 stood out for its higher performance in area and production, reaching 200 ha and 4,000 tons. The average yield remained relatively stable throughout the series (approximately 19,000 kg ha⁻¹), indicating technical consistency of the production system. The value of production showed a growth trend until 2014, remaining at high levels in the following years, demonstrating relative economic resilience. The PCA explained 93.8% of the total variance in the first two axes, demonstrating a strong association between area, production, and economic value. It is concluded that viticulture in Natuba shows adaptation to regional conditions and strategic potential for local socioeconomic development.