Evaluación Empírica de la Política Social del Gobierno de Andrés Manuel López Obrador: Efectos Distributivos, Institucionales y de Bienestar

Abstract

This paper analyzes the distributive, institutional and welfare effects of the social policy implemented during the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024), popularly known as the Fourth Transformation. Drawing on official sources such as the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL), the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), together with recent academic literature, the study examines the extent to which flagship programs such as the Pension for the Wellbeing of Older Adults, the Benito Juárez Scholarships, Youth Building the Future and Sembrando Vida modified poverty levels, income inequality and access to basic social rights. The findings show a mixed picture: on one hand, income poverty and inequality, measured through the Gini coefficient, registered moderate declines between 2018 and 2022, favored by direct and unconditional cash transfers; on the other hand, the elimination of the Seguro Popular and its replacement by the Institute of Health for Wellbeing (INSABI) caused a severe deterioration in effective access to health services, which went from leaving just over twenty million people without coverage in 2018 to more than fifty million in 2022. The paper concludes that the social policy of this administration prioritized direct income transfers over the construction of solid social protection institutions, producing partial distributive gains alongside relevant institutional setbacks in health and social security.