ASSESSMENT OF THE LEVEL OF EQUIPMENT OF HOUSEHOLD CONSUMERS WITH ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The systemic crisis in the Unified Energy System of Ukraine, caused by large-scale damage to shunting generation facilities, led to the transition from emergency management to the regular application of hourly outage schedules. In response to the long-term power shortage, a process of mass uncontrolled autonomization of the household sector took place through the diffusion of individual energy storage systems. The purpose of the article is to comprehensively assess the scale of equipping household consumers in Ukraine with battery systems based on macroeconomic market analysis and the parameters of the transitional regimes of an individual residential unit. An indirect assessment method has been developed for converting the physical volumes of imports of the State Customs Service into indicators of the total installed energy intensity of the household sector relative to the totality of personal accounts of electricity consumers. A chronological trajectory of the diffusion of energy storage systems has been constructed, which recorded an increase in the level of equipment of metering points from 1.2 % at the end of 2022 to 11.8 % at the beginning of 2026, when the total capacity of household storage systems reached 1.6 GW. Based on the mathematical model of Verhulst, the theoretical point of the inflection point of the logistic trend was determined. The practical verification of the method was carried out using a full-scale experiment in a gasified 60-apartment building. An anomalous cumulative peak of the “charging avalanche” was recorded, which may in the future exceed the thermal stability of the input protection. The real equipment factor of the node was determined non-invasively at 18.3% by the amplitude difference of the relaxation step of the inverters. The paradox of the deviation of local results from market trends was experimentally substantiated and the existence of “latent SNE” was proven due to the coherent start-up of a finely dispersed fleet of devices. The need to implement preventive dispatch control in SCADA systems was substantiated. Keywords:energy storage systems, "charging avalanche", level of equipment, non-invasive identification, relaxation step, latent capacity.