Thefts and Robberies in Transit Environments: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis in Pandemic Times in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Abstract

This study applies environmental criminology principles to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transit-related crime in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Drawing on police records (2018–2022), land-use data, and socioeconomic indicators, it combines hotspot mapping with regression analyses across pre-pandemic, early-pandemic, and post-restriction phases. Results reveal a U-shaped temporal pattern, with crime hotspots shifting from central corridors to intermediate areas before reconsolidating along major mobility axes. Crime risk is consistently associated with commercial density, transit infrastructure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, while effect sizes vary over time. Findings support the routine activity approach, showing that crime adapts to changes in mobility flows while spatial opportunity structures remain resilient to major shocks. Robbery recovers more slowly than theft, indicating differentiated responses to shifts in transit use. The study shows how pandemic-induced mobility disruptions reshaped urban crime and underscores the need for improved transit-area design and targeted policing in high-risk peripheral corridors.