Willingness to Accept a Locally Manufactured COVID-19 Vaccine in Lagos, Nigeria: A Cross-Sectional Survey and Demographic Predictors

Abstract

Background: Local vaccine manufacturing is being pursued across Africa to improve pandemic preparedness and reduce reliance on imports. In Nigeria, where COVID-19 vaccines were largely imported, willingness to accept locally produced vaccines is important for sustainable domestic production. The objective of this study was to estimate willingness to accept a locally manufactured COVID-19 vaccine among adults in Lagos, Nigeria, and to identify demographic predictors. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of adults in Lagos State from 7 September to 16 September 2024, using a questionnaire administered in four open-air markets. The primary outcome was willingness to accept a COVID-19 vaccine manufactured in Nigeria (yes/no). We summarized respondent characteristics, tested bivariate associations using chi-square tests, and estimated adjusted odds ratios (AORs) using multivariable logistic regression. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed using Hosmer–Lemeshow testing and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Results: Of 388 consenting respondents, 335 provided complete data (86.3%). Respondents were predominantly female (60.6%); the largest age groups were 25–34 (30.2%) and 35–44 (28.4%) years. Overall, 75.8% reported willingness to accept a Nigerian-made COVID-19 vaccine. Willingness differed by age group (p = 0.0028; trend p = 0.0002) and religion (p = 0.0403). In adjusted models, respondents aged 45–54 years (aOR 6.54; 95% CI: 1.73–24.79) and 55–64 years (aOR 4.97; 95% CI: 1.05–23.55) had higher odds of acceptance than those aged 18–24 years. Christian affiliation was associated with lower odds than Muslim affiliation (aOR 0.41; 95% CI: 0.20–0.83). Discrimination was acceptable (AUC 0.75; 95% CI: 0.69–0.80). Conclusions: Most respondents were willing to accept a Nigerian-made COVID-19 vaccine, suggesting demand-side readiness. Confidence-building strategies tailored to younger adults and implemented with faith-based and community institutions may support uptake of locally produced vaccines.