A Decision‐Support System for Prioritizing the Transformational Dynamics of Autonomous Trucks Deployment

Abstract

The implementation of autonomous technologies in commercial freight transportation has advanced significantly, with pilot programs demonstrating technical viability on major interstate highways. However, existing studies on freight innovation predominantly focus on technology adoption and efficiency metrics, often neglecting the broader organizational consequences of automation in logistics. Thus, the integration of autonomous trucks represents more than labor substitution or marginal productivity improvement. It initiates reconfigurations of freight flow control, service contracting, and the distribution of operational authority. Accordingly, this study analyzes the transformational dynamics of autonomous trucking deployment within North Dakota State's freight systems using integrated fuzzy consensus building (FCB) and fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) techniques. Through the analysis of 25 experts, this study identifies 16 critical transformation factors and models their causal interdependencies and structural importance. Results demonstrate that tech firm logistics control, industry structure transformation, and tech firm market entry exhibit the highest centrality values. In contrast, the traditional trucking market share declines systematically in dynamic simulations. A scenario‐based sigmoid sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the robustness of the results. The findings suggest stakeholders should urgently implement strategic adjustments before market dynamics solidify around platform‐dominant structures.