Determinants of Life Expectancy in Sri Lanka: Time Series Analysis of Income, Health Expenditure, Urbanization, and CO2 Emissions

Abstract

Life expectancy is an essential indicator of a country’s economic health, social development, and overall well-being. The research analyses environmental, socio-economic, and demographic determinants of life expectancy in Sri Lanka from 1991 to 2020, employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model that incorporates both long- and short-term dynamics. The ARDL bound test in the long-run estimation reveals that the variables GDP, education, and CO₂ emission are statistically significant. Overall, the results indicate that as income increases, people often have better access to health facilities and nutrition and, as a result, achieve a higher life expectancy. Education level also positively affects life expectancy by increasing awareness of physical and mental healthcare. The study reveals a negative relationship between CO₂ emissions and life expectancy, indicating that polluted environments are associated with lower life expectancy. The variation in urbanization levels in Sri Lanka during the study period does not seem to account for a meaningful portion of the variation in life expectancy. Policy efforts should prioritize education expenditure, vocational training, and skill development, together with effective measures to reduce environmental pollution, thereby promoting a healthier population and increasing life expectancy.