A METHOD FOR ASSESSING THE DEFAULT OF A COMPLEX ECONOMIC SYSTEM BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF TURBULENCE AND VISCOSITY OF THE EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

Abstract

In the context of growing interconnections between economic agents and increasing complexity of financial systems, traditional methods of credit risk assessment, which focus on analyzing a single company, are no longer sufficient. This review systematizes modern approaches to assessing default risk, examining their evolution from classical econometric models to machine learning algorithms and methods of financial network analysis. Special attention is paid to the relationship between default risk and the valuation of enterprises, including the real options approach, as well as to the level of technological maturity of companies. A new mechanism for assessing default risk in complex economic systems is proposed, based on the concept of jet flows.