A Study on The Vulnerability of Coastal Areas to Earthquakes and Tsunamis, and A Swot Analysis for Mitigation Based on A Socio-Ecological Framework in West Ternate, Ternate City, North Maluku Province
Abstract
The coastal area of West Ternate, Ternate City, North Maluku Province, is highly vulnerable to earthquake and tsunami hazards because of its direct exposure to the double-subduction system of the Molucca Sea. This study aimed to analyze the potential impacts of earthquakes and tsunamis, examine the relationship between coastal morphological characteristics and tsunami susceptibility, and formulate applicable and realistic disaster mitigation strategies. The study employed a qualitative approach using the Socio-Ecological Framework (SEF) integrated with SWOT analysis. Data were obtained through a literature review, analysis of seismic data from BMKG and the USGS, field observations, interpretation of satellite and drone imagery, and in-depth interviews with local communities and relevant stakeholders. The results indicated that the Molucca Sea region exhibited high seismic activity and recurrent earthquake and tsunami potential, while the coastal morphology of West Ternate, characterized by narrow bays and steep topography, contributed to tsunami-wave amplification. In addition, disaster risk was influenced by interactions among physical, social, and institutional factors. The study concluded that disaster mitigation strategies in West Ternate should be developed through an integrated approach that considers coastal geomorphological conditions, seismic hazard patterns, community preparedness, and local institutional capacity. The findings are expected to provide a scientific basis for area-based earthquake and tsunami disaster mitigation planning in West Ternate.