Protracted Rohingya displacement and national security in Bangladesh: Examining security and socio-political stability in Cox’s Bazar

Abstract

The prolonged presence of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh has evolved from a predominantly humanitarian concern into a multidimensional national-security and socio-political challenge, particularly in Cox's Bazar. This article examines how the Rohingya refugee influx affects Bangladesh's national security and socio-political stability, with particular attention to internal and border security, transnational crime, camp insecurity, and host-community stability. Drawing on Securitization Theory from the Copenhagen School, the study conceptualizes how prolonged displacement has been increasingly framed as an existential security threat, justifying exceptional governance measures through a control-stability feedback loop. The study adopted a convergent parallel mixed-methods design, targeting five stakeholder groups directly affected by or managing the security environment: government and security officials, local administrators and political leaders, humanitarian and Non Governmental Organization [NGO] personnel, host-community members, and Rohingya refugees. Proportionate stratified sampling was employed to ensure adequate representation across these groups, yielding a sample of 443 respondents from an estimated population of 3,900 stakeholders. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and key informant interviews, with 380 questionnaires returned and analyzed, representing an 85.8% response rate. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze quantitative data, while qualitative evidence was thematically interpreted. The findings indicate that 89.3% of participants perceived an increase in internal and border-security pressures associated with the Rohingya influx. Drug trafficking (83.9%), cross-border crime (72.6%), and illegal movement (61.3%) emerged as the most prominent security challenges, while radicalization was comparatively less prominent (22.9%). Furthermore, 92.6% of participants assessed security risks in and around refugee settlements as high or very high, while 66.5% perceived deterioration in host-community law and order. Overall, 78.4% reported a high or very high negative effect of the refugee influx on socio-political stability. The findings demonstrate that the Rohingya crisis has evolved into a chronic security-stability challenge, shaped by the interaction of protracted displacement, organized criminality, border vulnerabilities, institutional pressures, and socio-economic tensions. From a theoretical perspective, the study demonstrates that securitization has become institutionalized rather than remaining a temporary emergency response, with persistent criminality providing material conditions through which security claims acquire credibility. The article contributes to knowledge by demonstrating that the principal security implications are associated more strongly with criminality and illicit mobility than with radicalization, while simultaneously affecting refugee and host-community security. The study recommends targeted disruption of criminal networks, strengthened border intelligence, improved community security, and protection-oriented refugee governance rather than blanket securitization of the Rohingya population.