Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Regimes in the Šumadija Region, 1961–2024

Abstract

Climate change is a major focus of contemporary research due to its effects on temperature and precipitation regimes. This study assesses changes in temperature and precipitation regimes in the Šumadija Region, Serbia, over the 1961–2024 period. Climatological data from three synoptic stations (Belgrade, Smederevska Palanka, and Kragujevac) were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests, while climatic aridity was assessed using the Pinna Combinative Index. The results reveal statistically significant increasing trends in mean annual and monthly air temperatures at all three stations. The Pettitt test identified 1998 as a change point in the temperature series. In contrast, no statistically significant trend was detected in mean annual precipitation. Despite the observed intra-annual redistribution of precipitation and increasing climatic aridity, all three stations remained classified as humid according to the Pinna Combinative Index. Continuous monitoring is essential for understanding regional climate dynamics and assessing the impacts of climate change.