LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY AND FUTURE WARMING PROJECTIONS IN HATAY, TÜRKİYE

Abstract

This study examines long-term temperature variability and future climate projections in Hatay Province, located along the Eastern Mediterranean coast of Türkiye. The aim is to evaluate historical temperature trends and assess future warming patterns by integrating homogenized observational records with CMIP6-based climate projections. Annual temperature data from the Antakya, Dörtyol, and İskenderun meteorological stations covering the period 1940–2023 were subjected to quality control, homogenization (SNHT, Pettitt, and Buishand tests), and Trend-Free Prewhitening (TFPW) to account for serial correlation. Long-term trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Future temperature conditions for 2041-2060 were derived from CMIP6 datasets under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios and evaluated within a GIS environment. Results indicate a clear warming tendency across the province, with the strongest increases observed at the coastal İskenderun station, particularly in mean temperature. A decline in the diurnal temperature range suggests asymmetric warming associated with enhanced nocturnal temperatures. Climate projections show continued warming under both scenarios, with greater increases under SSP5-8.5. Spatial patterns of future temperature change remain strongly influenced by elevation and coastal proximity. These findings demonstrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of climate change in Hatay and provide a basis for regional adaptation planning.