The Nuances of Conflicts in the Arctic and the Level of Analysis Problem

Abstract

This article examines conflict dynamics in the Arctic using a framework that includes the state, regional, and systemic (international) analysis levels. While public and political narratives often depict the Arctic as an emerging arena of geopolitical rivalry, these interpretations often overlook the analytical complexity of conflicts in the region. Drawing on the levels of analysis approach, the study employs qualitative content analysis of academic literature, policy documents, and institutional agreements to explore how conflict dynamics emerge and interact across levels. The findings indicate that Arctic conflicts manifest differently depending on the level of analysis. At the state level, tensions arise as sovereignty disputes, maritime jurisdiction disagreements, and strategic signaling. At the regional level, institutional mechanisms, particularly the Arctic Council and legally binding agreements, have historically mitigated tensions and facilitated governance. At the systemic level, however, Arctic security is increasingly shaped by great-power competition, nuclear deterrence, and the growing involvement of non-Arctic actors. These dynamics have intensified following Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which disrupted regional cooperation and reshaped the region’s geopolitical environment. The article argues that understanding Arctic security requires an integrated perspective that captures the interaction among state behavior, regional institutions, and systemic geopolitical forces.