Floods Early Warning Messages in a Rural Province in South Africa

Abstract

Floods remain among the most frequent and damaging natural hazards globally, with effective flood early warning messages (FEWMs) playing a critical role in reducing disaster risk and enhancing community preparedness. Despite advances in early warning systems, many rural communities in developing countries continue to experience challenges in accessing, understanding, and responding to warning information. This study assessed the effectiveness of FEWMs in the Mokgareng community of the North West Province, South Africa. A quantitative cross‐sectional survey design was adopted. Data were collected from 102 adult respondents using a structured questionnaire and analysed using descriptive statistics, a Generalised Linear Mixed Model (GLMM), and binary logistic regression in R Statistical Software. The findings revealed a substantial gap between awareness and exposure to FEWMs. Although most respondents reported understanding the meaning of FEWMs and expressed confidence in interpreting warning information, many indicated that they had not received or could not recall receiving warning messages. High levels of cellphone ownership suggest strong potential for mobile‐based dissemination; however, significant concerns were identified regarding message reach, community consultation, and dissemination pathways. The logistic regression analysis showed that the time taken to receive warning messages was the only statistically significant predictor associated with FEWM receipt ( β  = 0.756, p  = 0.012), highlighting the importance of timely dissemination. In contrast, perceptions regarding message effectiveness, adequacy of information, and satisfaction with municipal dissemination approaches were not statistically significant predictors. The study concludes that the effectiveness of FEWMs in the Mokgareng community is constrained more by dissemination failures than by comprehension challenges. Strengthening timely message delivery, improving community participation in warning system design, and enhancing trusted communication channels could significantly improve flood preparedness and response in vulnerable rural communities.