Modelamiento de la distribución potencial del Quinual rojo (Polylepis multijuga) en el departamento de Cajamarca

Abstract

The conservation of high-Andean tree species faces increasing challenges due to climate change and the accelerated loss of natural habitats. Polylepis multijuga, an endemic species of northern Peru, has received limited attention regarding its potential distribution and response to future climate scenarios, creating an important knowledge gap for the design of effective conservation strategies. This study modeled the current and future potential distribution of P. multijuga in the department of Cajamarca using the MaxEnt algorithm, based on 24 initial environmental variables and 50 presence records. After data screening and variable selection through Pearson correlation analysis and the Jackknife test, ten environmental variables were retained for model simulation. The results indicate that, under current environmental conditions, highly suitable habitat covers 676.13 km², equivalent to 2.07% of the department, mainly distributed across the provinces of Chota, Santa Cruz, San Miguel, and Hualgayoc. Under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario for 2041-2060, the extent of highly suitable habitat is projected to decrease by 15.74%, corresponding to a loss of 106.43 km². These findings provide a useful scientific basis for identifying priority areas for the conservation, restoration, and sustainable management of P. multijuga in Cajamarca.