DYNAMICS OF BUDGET STABILITY IN THE CONTEXT OF FINANCIAL POLICY

Abstract

Since the end of 2022, the Russian economy has been experiencing prolonged turbulence caused by external sanctions, global trade shifts, and fiscal policy changes in 2024-2025. The article proposes a new macroeconomic approach to quantifying the fiscal sustainability of regions, combining adjusted inflation indices with indicators of tax and transfer flows. Using official data on the decline in the number of regions with double-digit inflation in 2025-2026, confirmed by statistics on the subjects of the Federation, correlations between regional budget indicators, inflationary dynamics and the structure of budget expenditures/revenues are analyzed. The proposed methodology includes the construction of two-dimensional risk graphs, the fiscal sustainability index and the inflation pressure index, and the transfer rate, as well as the real growth rates of local GRP. Regions with a higher degree of fiscal autonomy show a more stable inflationary trajectory, while transfer-dependent regions exhibit increased cyclical fluctuations. Based on the analysis, conclusions are drawn about the need for financial decentralization, fine-tuning of inter-budgetary mechanisms and the introduction of new macro indicators of regional financial health into the state planning system.