Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Maize (Zea Mays) Production in Kaduna State, Nigeria: Evidence from Rainfall and Temperature Data

Abstract

This study examines how climate change and variability affect maize production in Kaduna State. Climate data (annual rainfall and temperature) for 40 years (1986 to 2025) were tested using standardized skewness and Kurtosis statistics, found to be normally distributed, and analyzed to detect changes in the study area’s climate. The study also evaluated patterns and variations in maize production over the same period. Linear regression was used to determine the linear trends and changes in climate data and maize production, while Pearson’s product-moment correlation was used to determine the relationship between the climate data and maize production. The linear regression for annual rainfall, average temperature, and maize production over the study period (1986-2025) generally showed an upward trend. The correlation results showed no significant relationship between rainfall and maize yield at p < 0.05, contributing only 2.03% to maize production, while temperature showed a significant relationship with maize production at p < 0.05, contributing about 32.5% of maize production in the State. It is recommended that farmers adopt irrigation systems for large-scale maize production, since rainfall is becoming unpredictable, and that agricultural research institutions develop drought-resistant maize varieties.