Energy and Latency First: How Deployment Constraints Reverse Time-Series Model Selection

Abstract

AI models, and time-series models in particular are typically ranked by accuracy and deployed under constraints absent from that ranking. In this paper, we study a real setting where these constraints are explicit and measurable: handover pre- diction in cellular networks, where inference runs on the User Equipment once per 40 ms measurement period and must complete before the network acts. The timing bound is hard: a late prediction is superseded by the measurement it was predicting, while energy is a cumulative budget spent for the life of the device. Neither appears in the objective these models are selected on. We evaluate eight architectures under a protocol that screens for deadline feasibility at the tail rather than the mean, then ranks the feasible models on measured inference energy, count- ing the feature computation that precedes the forward pass and is usually omitted. Gradient-boosted trees on handcrafted temporal features are the most accurate model (F1=0.974) and among the cheapest to run, while the neural architecture an accuracy-only benchmark would rank first (CNN-1D, F1=0.914) costs over 3 times more energy per inference under a realistic duty-cycled deployment pattern. We give three conditions under which this outcome should be expected, so the finding applies beyond telecommunications. Accuracy-only benchmarking does not merely under-report deployment cost. It can rank first a model that cannot be deployed.