Landslide susceptibility mapping and model validation using AHP and GIS techniques: A case study of Jerash, Jordan

Abstract

Landslides are a major geohazard in northern Jordan, especially in the Jerash region, where complex geological conditions, steep terrain, and increased human activity contribute to slope instability. The goal of this study is to assess landslide risk in the Jerash area using an integrated geographic information system (GIS) and analytic hi - erarchy process (AHP) method. Seven conditioning factors were selected based on area features, data availability, and previous research: slope, elevation, aspect, lithology, soil texture, land use/land cover (LULC), and rainfall. These parameters were weighted using AHP pairwise comparisons, yielding a consistency ratio of 0.05, indicat - ing satisfactory reliability of the expert judgments. Then, the weighted thematic layers were combined in a GIS environment to create a landslide susceptibility map divided into low, moderate, and high susceptibility zones. The findings show that slope is important factor in determining landslide incidence in the research area, followed by soil texture and lithology. Areas with steep slopes, clay-rich soils, weak lithological units, heavy agricultural activity, and high rainfall are moderately to highly susceptible to landslides. Spatial validation against documented landslide locations shows a substantial correlation between observed events and anticipated high-susceptibility zones, validating the robustness of the proposed model. The created susceptibility map is useful for land use plan - ning, infrastructure development, and catastrophe risk reduction measures in the Jerash region. Overall, this study demonstrates the usefulness of the GIS-AHP framework for landslide susceptibility evaluation in data-scarce, semi-arid environments and supports its use for long-term hazard management in northern Jordan.