The Significance of Insurance Contribution Incentives for Investors under the Unified TAD

Abstract

For more than a decade, business activity in the Russian Far East (FEFD) has relied on the system of tax and social insurance incentives under the Territories of Advanced Development (TAD) and the Free Port of Vladivostok (FPV); over this period, more than 200,000 jobs were created and over 5.5 trillion rubles were invested in the region’s economy under these preferential regimes. The 2026 reform withdrew new residents’ entitlement to reduced social insurance contribution rates. The question of reinstating the reduced insurance contribution rate under the new preferential regime is therefore particularly pressing at present. This article assesses the significance of the reduced social insurance contribution rate for the investment decisions of prospective residents of the Unified Preferential Regime for the Far East and the Arctic (Unified TAD), planned for launch in 2027. The incentive’s significance is estimated using the real options method: the value of the right to implement a project is defined as the difference between the present value of the project, weighted by the probability that the investment will prove profitable, and the present value of the capital to be invested. Scenario analysis was conducted for model domestic and foreign investors across the industries most represented in the FEFD economy. Under current macroeconomic conditions, mineral extraction shows high expected profitability, which may result in such projects being excluded from eligibility for incentives under the Unified TAD. Logistics and fishing projects require the reduced insurance rate to maintain investment attractiveness, whereas for other industries the incentive cannot be regarded as a sufficient investment stimulus, particularly for foreign investors