Are developing countries ready for climate change extreme weather events?: A case study from Egypt

Abstract

Climate change and extreme weather events pose significant challenges to economic development, industrial continuity, and sustainability in developing countries. Assessing preparedness requires an understanding of how climate hazards affect business operations, how organisations identify and manage associated risks, and how national energy transitions support broader climate objectives. This dissertation examines these interconnected dimensions through a case study of Egypt, focusing on supply chain vulnerability, ceramic manufacturing, and the development of clean and renewable energy. Its overarching objective is to investigate preparedness for climate-related disruptions and identify approaches to strengthening organisational resilience and advancing sustainable development. The dissertation comprises three complementary studies that combine empirical risk assessment, simulation modelling, and contextual policy analysis. The first study investigates the effects of extreme weather events on supply chains. Drawing on semi-structured interviews and a survey-based assessment, it examines climate threats, their implications for organisational resources and suppliers, and the processes through which associated risks are identified and evaluated. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is employed to prioritise supply chain risks according to their severity, probability of occurrence, and detectability. The analysis also distinguishes between the full sample and a sample excluding agricultural data to examine differences in exposure across business activities. This study develops a proposed climate change risk management process and considers its managerial implications. The second study examines the impact of extreme weather events on ceramic manufacturing in Egypt. It combines cognitive mapping, data collection, statistical analysis, and system dynamics modelling using Vensim. The modelling framework explores relationships between climate variables and manufacturing operations, including workforce availability, production capacity, inventory, sales, and undelivered orders. Scenario-based simulation is used to investigate how weather-related disruptions may propagate through the production system and affect operational performance over time. This approach provides a basis for examining manufacturing vulnerability and informing adaptation planning. The third study assesses Egypt’s clean and renewable energy development in relation to Sustainable Development Goal 7 and the country’s sustainable development agenda. It applies a political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) framework to examine the conditions influencing renewable energy deployment. A case study of Benban Solar Park provides a practical context for analysing renewable energy development and considering its future prospects in Egypt. Together, the three studies establish an integrated framework for examining climate preparedness across organisational, sectoral, and national levels. The dissertation connects supply chain risk management and industrial adaptation with the broader conditions shaping the energy transition. Its contribution lies in combining complementary analytical methods to investigate both immediate operational vulnerability and longer-term sustainability priorities within a developing-country context. The research is intended to inform managers and policymakers seeking to strengthen climate risk assessment, improve business continuity planning, and support the development of resilient and sustainable economic systems.