ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF PORT DUES AT THE GREATER ODESA PORTS UNDER WARTIME THREATS

Abstract

The article substantiates an adaptive risk-oriented mechanism for port dues management aimed at maintaining the competitiveness of the Greater Odesa ports under wartime economic uncertainty. The study identifies changes in port operating conditions caused by military threats and the resulting increase in insurance, freight, vessel delay and other costs borne by shipping companies. Particular attention is paid to Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi, which operate within a common security environment but differ in specialization, cargo flows, vessel characteristics, exposure, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. These differences determine the need for differentiated management decisions.The scientific contribution of the study is the development of an adaptive mechanism linking port dues adjustment with the economic consequences of wartime threats. An integrated War-Economic Risk Index (WRI) is proposed, combining military threat, port exposure, economic and operational vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. The model also considers the additional economic burden on shipowners and determines an adaptive adjustment coefficient for port dues subject to a lower limit required to preserve the financial sustainability of port infrastructure. Thus, an increase in war-economic risk does not automatically result in lower port dues; adjustment is applied only when economically justified.The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), econometric methods and scenario analysis are proposed for parameterisation and subsequent calibration of the model. Scenario-based testing using operational indicators of the Greater Odesa ports demonstrates that ports exposed to the same regional military threats may have different levels of war-economic risk. This confirms the feasibility of differentiated rather than uniform adjustment of port dues.The proposed mechanism provides a structured decision-support framework integrating risk assessment, economic analysis and scenario forecasting. Its practical application enables balancing the economic attractiveness of vessel calls, port competitiveness and the financial sustainability of port infrastructure, contributing to a more flexible tariff policy under prolonged wartime and economic uncertainty.